Author: Braden
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How the Chase is Likely to Unfold
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In the announcement and follow-on coverage of the return to the Chase Format, NASCAR discussed its analysis of the format and ran simulations to better understand it. While they’ve provided some high-level results from this work, I wanted to dive deeper, so I’ve run the same race simulations that powered last season’s Playoff simulations through
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Introducing gRating: iRacing’s iRating for NASCAR
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With the release of its NASCAR 25 video game early last year, NASCAR and the game’s developer, iRacing, unveiled a new driver rating system. Predictably, the ratings sparked spirited debate among fans and drivers. Unexplained amid this discussion was why iRacing didn’t apply its tried-and-true iRating system to rate NASCAR drivers in the game. With
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Good Race Correlations
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I was sitting in #NASCOURT today, listening to John Probst, EVP and Chief Racing Development Officer’s testimony, where he said that in connection with their initial planning for the NextGen car, NASCAR contracted with Lixar, a Canadian technology advisory business, to understand what makes a good race. They utilized fan sentiment, timing, and scoring data
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Rewinding the Playoffs, Reviewing the Model
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The NASCAR season is over. Let’s review how the race and playoff simulation models performed, and would have performed over the course of the playoffs. Over the course of the playoffs, I’ve improved both the race and playoff simulations, and have not updated previous articles – so the results presented below will not align with
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And then there were Four – Breaking down Phoenix
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In preparation for the final race, I’ve continued to refine the Race Simulation model, simplifying certain aspects and adding additional parameters to account for drivers’ performance compared to their teammates. This has had the effect of more accurately modeling drivers on new teams (such as Briscoe) or those with less historical data. As we look
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Overtime Changes Everything, Winning is the only way in
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The last two laps significantly changed the playoff picture and completely changed the dynamic of Martinsville. Briscoe, of course, locked himself in, while Larson and Bell are both now almost certain to advance. Blaney, Elliott, Logano, and Byron are all now in must-win situations. Now that the championship four is likely set, we can take
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Vegas Shakes up the Playoff Field
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The final 30 laps at Vegas shook up the playoff field, and have started to clarify the Championship 4. Hamlin’s win locks him into Phoenix and boosts his chances of winning the championship to 42%. Other drivers ‘ odds will improve as they lock in – but for now, Hamlin is the odds-on favorite. Larson
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Onto the 3rd Round – Down to the Wire
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After an exciting finish that resulted in no changes to advancement at the Roval, we can now look ahead to the penultimate round of the playoffs. The top of the field is close – Blaney, Larson, and Hamlin are all currently likely to advance, though a single bad finish or wins from those outside of
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Chaos at Kansas clarifies the Round 3 Picture
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After an eventful overtime at Kansas has clarified the bubble has clarified who is likely to advance into the 3rd Round. Blaney, Elliott, Larson, Hamlin, Bell, and Byron are all essentially locked in – no other drivers can both score enough points and win to put them below the cutline come the end of the
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Playoff Results after Loudon: The Bubble Forms
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After an unexpectedly strong showing from Penske at Loudon and underwhelming performances from Toyota, the cutline bubble has begun to form more clearly. Blaney, Byron, and Larson all now have a greater than 90% chance of advancing, while Hamlin and Bell both have more than an 80% chance of advancing. Looking forward, Denny is now