The last two laps significantly changed the playoff picture and completely changed the dynamic of Martinsville. Briscoe, of course, locked himself in, while Larson and Bell are both now almost certain to advance. Blaney, Elliott, Logano, and Byron are all now in must-win situations.
Now that the championship four is likely set, we can take a quick look at championship probabilities. Hamlin remains the most likely championship winner, at almost 50%. Bell and Larson both have around 20% chances of leaving Phoenix with a trophy, while Briscoe has only a 2.74% chance. The simulation is significantly underrating Briscoe’s odds, as his historical performance at Phoenix with SHR is not competitive, and he finished 35th earlier this year at Phoenix after getting caught up in a wreck in stage 2. We’ll do a deep-dive on historical statistics after Martinsville to get a clearer picture of race probabilities.
So, how did Overtime change the playoff picture? The biggest changes are the shifts in Byron and Briscoe, each swinging from locked-in to unlikely to advance. Larson’s chances dropped moderately, as he earned significantly fewer points. Bell’s chances rose significantly, as Byron’s tri-oval wreck significantly grew the cutline gap. Blaney, Elliott, and Logano needed a win both before and after the race, and thus their chances of advancement did not change.
Looking at the 4 drivers below the cutline’s chances of advancement compared to their probabilities of winning at Martinsville, it’s obvious that they are all in must-win territory. There’s not one case in 50,000 simulations where these drivers can point their way in, as their probabilities are nearly identical.
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