Tag: Playoffs
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Rewinding the Playoffs, Reviewing the Model
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The NASCAR season is over. Let’s review how the race and playoff simulation models performed, and would have performed over the course of the playoffs. Over the course of the playoffs, I’ve improved both the race and playoff simulations, and have not updated previous articles – so the results presented below will not align with
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And then there were Four – Breaking down Phoenix
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In preparation for the final race, I’ve continued to refine the Race Simulation model, simplifying certain aspects and adding additional parameters to account for drivers’ performance compared to their teammates. This has had the effect of more accurately modeling drivers on new teams (such as Briscoe) or those with less historical data. As we look
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Overtime Changes Everything, Winning is the only way in
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The last two laps significantly changed the playoff picture and completely changed the dynamic of Martinsville. Briscoe, of course, locked himself in, while Larson and Bell are both now almost certain to advance. Blaney, Elliott, Logano, and Byron are all now in must-win situations. Now that the championship four is likely set, we can take
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Vegas Shakes up the Playoff Field
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The final 30 laps at Vegas shook up the playoff field, and have started to clarify the Championship 4. Hamlin’s win locks him into Phoenix and boosts his chances of winning the championship to 42%. Other drivers ‘ odds will improve as they lock in – but for now, Hamlin is the odds-on favorite. Larson
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Onto the 3rd Round – Down to the Wire
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After an exciting finish that resulted in no changes to advancement at the Roval, we can now look ahead to the penultimate round of the playoffs. The top of the field is close – Blaney, Larson, and Hamlin are all currently likely to advance, though a single bad finish or wins from those outside of
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Chaos at Kansas clarifies the Round 3 Picture
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After an eventful overtime at Kansas has clarified the bubble has clarified who is likely to advance into the 3rd Round. Blaney, Elliott, Larson, Hamlin, Bell, and Byron are all essentially locked in – no other drivers can both score enough points and win to put them below the cutline come the end of the
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Playoff Probabilities Before Bristol. Whose Going To Make the Cut?
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After another eventful race for the playoff field, it’s time to once again run the simulation and see which drivers are likely to make it through Bristol, and whose seasons are likely to end there. After being unsatisfied with some of the models’ predictive power, I’ve tweaked it to better account for current team performance,
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Updated Playoff Sim Results After Darlington
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Darlington was an eventful race for the playoff field, drasticly swininging the odds of success for many playoff drivers. I’ve re-run the playoff model, substituting the results from Darlington in place of the simulations of that race. Briscoe’s odds of advancing through the 2nd Round are up 30% to 100%, as he’s locked in via
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After Simulating the Playoffs 20,000 Times, Who is Most Likely to be Champion?
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I simulated every race in the playoffs 20,000 times, for the entire field. The simulation is based on recent results and lap-by-lap performance from races at similar tracks in the NextGen era. I then build a performance model based on these results.