And then there were Four – Breaking down Phoenix

In preparation for the final race, I’ve continued to refine the Race Simulation model, simplifying certain aspects and adding additional parameters to account for drivers’ performance compared to their teammates. This has had the effect of more accurately modeling drivers on new teams (such as Briscoe) or those with less historical data.

As we look to the championship race, the odds of each driver winning the championship are rather close. The HMS drivers are practically identical, both with around a 30% chance of advancing; Hamlin isn’t far behind with a 25% chance of winning, while Briscoe trails at just 14%.

Let’s take a look at where each driver is likely to finish if they win the championship. Each driver’s most likely finishing position in winning the championship is, of course, 1st – but for all of the drivers,s this is not the most likely outcome. They are all still reasonably likely to finish in the top 5. It’s very possible that the winner of the race will not be in the championship 4. Look to Bell, Blaney, Logano, and Chastain to be potential spoilers

Looking at drivers’ historical performance on short tracks and Phoenix, we can see why Hamlin, Byron, and Larson have higher probabilities of winning the championship than Briscoe. Those three each historically start, run, and finish 5-10 places higher than Briscoe at both Phoenix and on Short Tracks, and when looking at the full field, are some of the top drivers, while Briscoe sits at the top of the mid-pack.

How is the race likely to play out at Phoenix? In the next-gen era, 3 out of 7 of the races have had a restart within the last 10 laps, and 5 out of the 7 have had a caution in the last 75 laps, or so. Pit crew performance is likely to play a big factor in this race.

Each of these drivers’ pit crews has strong performance in the clutch last stop of each race, though the HMS crews are slightly more consistent. Both Briscoe and Hamlin’s crews have had multiple final stops over 15 seconds, which, if they were to happen during a late-race caution at Phoenix, would almost certainly doom their drivers’ championship hopes.