After an eventful overtime at Kansas has clarified the bubble; and has clarified who is likely to advance into the 3rd Round. Blaney, Elliott, Larson, Hamlin, Bell and Byron are all essentially locked in – no other drivers can both score enough points and win to put them below the cutline come the end of the Roval race. Briscoe is likely but not certain to advance. Logano, needs to be. concerned about Chastain knocking him out on points, and the other drivers below the line knocking him out with a win; while Reddick, Wallace, and Cindric can only realistically advance with a win.
Let’s examine how overtime altered each driver’s chances of advancing. On the left, we have playoff probabilities based on drivers finishing as they were positioned at the red flag, compared to their actual probabilities at the finish.
First, the key players: Wallace (-93%) swings from being locked in to needing a win to advance; meanwhile, Elliott (+26%) shifts from likely to advance to being locked in, while Hamlin’s (+1.8%) probability of advancement remains nearly unchanged. But more interestingly, is how Hamlin’s last lap move reverberates through the rest of the probabilities. Briscoe‘s probability of advancing jumps by 25%, as he moves from on the cut-line, to one position above; Logano‘s chances move up by 15% as he moves from below the cutline, to sitting on the cutline, while Chastin’s chances similarly move up by 15% as he moves from 2 to 1 below the cutline. Hamlin’s choice to go for the win ended up costing his team a spot in Round 3 and significantly increased the chances of him facing Logano, the ultimate clutch driver in the playoffs, in Round 3.
Let’s take a quick look at a few of the driver’s performance vs expectations. Byron’s recovery to 9th place made up for his dearth of stage points, and result in him earning almost exactly the median expected points. While Reddick similarly recovered to a good finish of 7th, his lack of stage points means he earned almost exactly the median of his expected points. Blaney’s speeding penalty on the final stop results in him earning the bottom of his range of expected points, but of course it doesn’t matter as he’s already locked into the next round. Cindric getting caught up in a big wreck significantly impacts his advancement hopes; while Chastain’s points earned fall at the top of his expected range.
Briscoe is in a reasonably comfortable position going into the Roval, any finish in the top 20 will result in his likely advancement, while any finish inside the top 10 will lock in his advancement. Logano will need a top 15 finish to be likely to advance, but his chances of advancing would increase with any finish above 20th. Chastain needs to outcore Logano to have a chance of advancing, and will need at least Top 10 finish to do so. Reddick, Wallace, and Cindric are all so far below the cutline that their only realistic chance of advancing is winning. There are some outside scenarios for Reddick and Wallace where they earn Top 5 finishes while Chastain and Logano have bad days, but the probability of that occuring are extremely remote.
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