Month: October 2025
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And then there were Four – Breaking down Phoenix
In preparation for the final race, I’ve continued to refine the Race Simulation model, simplifying certain aspects and adding additional parameters to account for drivers’ performance compared to their teammates. This has had the effect of more accurately modeling drivers on new teams (such as Briscoe) or those with less historical data. As we look…
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Overtime Changes Everything, Winning is the only way in
The last two laps significantly changed the playoff picture and completely changed the dynamic of Martinsville. Briscoe, of course, locked himself in, while Larson and Bell are both now almost certain to advance. Blaney, Elliott, Logano, and Byron are all now in must-win situations. Now that the championship four is likely set, we can take…
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Vegas Shakes up the Playoff Field
The final 30 laps at Vegas shook up the playoff field, and have started to clarify the Championship 4. Hamlin’s win locks him into Phoenix and boosts his chances of winning the championship to 42%. Other drivers ‘ odds will improve as they lock in – but for now, Hamlin is the odds-on favorite. Larson…
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Onto the 3rd Round – Down to the Wire
After an exciting finish that resulted in no changes to advancement at the Roval, we can now look ahead to the penultimate round of the playoffs. The top of the field is close – Blaney, Larson, and Hamlin are all currently likely to advance, though a single bad finish or wins from those outside of…