Darlington was an eventful race for the playoff field, drasticly swininging the odds of success for many playoff drivers. I’ve re-run1 the playoff model, substituting the results from Darlington in place of the simulations of that race.
Briscoe’s odds of advancing through the 2nd Round are up 30% to 100%, as he’s locked in via his win, though the model continues to under-estimate his odds through the remaining rounds, as it doesn’t give enough weight to his uptick in performance at JGR. Much of the rest of the top of the field are largely unchanged, HMS’s struggles at Darlington haven’t affected 3 of their 4 drivers. The mid-pack shows where over-performing expectatiopns can make a big difference. Bubba, Chastain, and Reddick have all increased their odds to over 95%, they’d each need a run of bad luck to count them out of the playoffs. Lastly, Cindric’s odds of advancing have shot up by 20%, to just shy of 52% pushing Bowman below the expected cutline. Let’s look at the drivers projected performance at Darlington vs actual results to understand why the biggest swings happened.
The important comparison here is to look at where the result (red dot) falls within the distribution of projected points. When it falls above (or below) the inner box (IQR for the stats nerds) that driver over (or under) performed.While a few of the of the top drivers (Blaney, Elliott, Byron, Bell) underperformed their expectations, a combination of their playoff points, and strong expected future performance, allow them to take a mulligan. Bowman’s scoring 23 fewer points than his median expected performance, dropped his odds of advancing by nearly 30%. Similarly, SvG scoring 10 fewer points than expected took his long-shot chance of advancing into near impossibility. Let’s break down the rest of round 1 for each of the drivers below.
About the Metrics
Points Earned: Points Earned in this Round + Playoff Points at the start of the round
P75 Points Remaining: The points the driver is expected to earn in the 75th Percentile of simulations of the remaining races.
P75 Delta To Cut Line: The drivers P75 Points above (below) the median cutline.
P50 Points Remaining: The points the driver is expected to earn in the 50th Percentile (median) of simulations of the remaining races.
P50 Delta To Cut Line: The drivers P50 Points above (below) the median cutline.
P25 Points Remaining: The points the driver is expected to earn in the 25th Percentile of simulations of the remaining races.
P25 Delta too Cut Line: The drivers P25 Points above (below) the median cutline.
After Darlington, The 13th placed driver is expected to have scored 62 points, and the 12th place driver is expected to have scoroed 71 points. Drivers currently in are compared to the 13th place points, Drivers currently out are compared to the 121th place points.
C. Briscoe – 100.00%
Current Position: 1
Points Earned: 69
P75 Points Remaining: 57
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 64
P50 Points Remaining: 44
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 51
P25 Points Remaining: 33
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 40
Briscoe’s win (and near max points haul) means the 19 team can begin to focus on Loudon, a track that’s been historically strong for the 19 team but weak for Briscoe. I wouldn’t be surpised if they leveraged an exploitative strategy to bank more playoff points through stage wins, but to otherwise play it safe. Again, the model does not adequately capture his performance gainse at JGR. Expect him to continue to overperform his expected results though the remaining races.
D. Hamlin – 100.00%
Current Position: 2
Points Earned: 67
P75 Points Remaining: 94
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 99
P50 Points Remaining: 85
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 90
P25 Points Remaining: 74
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 79
Denny is now statistically locked-in to the next round. His haul of playoff points protects him from all but the worst results over the next few races. His bank of playoff points protect him in nearly all outcomes. He would have to score only one point in each of the next two races to fall below the expected cutline, but as he’s expected to be one of the higher-scorers over the next two races, the cutline would likely move down with his under-performance.
K. Larson – 99.94%
Current Position: 3
Points Earned: 62
P75 Points Remaining: 89
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 89
P50 Points Remaining: 79
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 79
P25 Points Remaining: 69
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 69
Kyle’s in a very similar position to Denny, nearly certain to make tthe next round with his bank of playoff points, and were he to underperform, the cutline would likely be lower than expected. He too, is nearly certainly advancing to the the next round.
T. Reddick – 99.37%
Current Position: 4
Points Earned: 59
P75 Points Remaining: 66
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 63
P50 Points Remaining: 56
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 53
P25 Points Remaining: 45
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 42
Reddick’s overperformance at Darlington means he can rest easy, with some extra points in the bag, he now has a buffer he lacked with a relative paucity of playoff points. Now that he’s safely above the expected cutline, the 45 team has an opportunity to bank a few playoff points points through exploitattive strategy calls at Gateway and Bristol. Building a buffer would be valueable as he still needs to overperform expectations in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to make it to Phoenix.
W. Byron – 99.17%
Current Position: 6
Points Earned: 49
P75 Points Remaining: 83
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 70
P50 Points Remaining: 73
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 60
P25 Points Remaining: 61
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 48
While Byron’s underperformed expectations at Darlington, his haul of playoff poitns have protected him from being near the cutline. While he can likely survive one more underwhelming result, two bad results will put Byron in danger of being eliminated.
C. Bell – 99.13%
Current Position: 10
Points Earned: 35
P75 Points Remaining: 94
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 67
P50 Points Remaining: 85
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 58
P25 Points Remaining: 74
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 47
While Bell’s underperformance hasn’t made his advancement to the second round particularly less likely, he no longer has a buffer, and he’ll need to perform well in at both Gateway and Bristol to advance out of the round. His high probability of a win at Bristol could earn him some valuable playoff points for later rounds.
R. Blaney – 98.69%
Current Position: 7
Points Earned: 45
P75 Points Remaining: 84
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 67
P50 Points Remaining: 74
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 57
P25 Points Remaining: 62
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 45
Blaney is in a similar position to Bell, underperformance at Darlington gives him little room for error in the next two races, but Gateway and Bristol are both good tracks for Blaney. As long as he can avoid bad luck, he’ll continue on to the second round.
B. Wallace – 97.56%
Current Position: 5
Points Earned: 50
P75 Points Remaining: 71
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 59
P50 Points Remaining: 60
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 48
P25 Points Remaining: 47
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 35
Bubba’s strong points haul in Darlington gives him a strong cushion as we head into two tracks where he’s eexpected to run mid-pack. As long as he can avoid calamity, he should sail onto the next round.
C. Elliott – 95.70%
Current Position: 11
Points Earned: 33
P75 Points Remaining: 81
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 52
P50 Points Remaining: 71
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 42
P25 Points Remaining: 59
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 30
Chase’s underwhelming performance at Darlington still leaves him in a comfortable place. His lack of playoff points mean he must perform as expected through the remaining rounds, but barring DNFs or finishes outside the top 20, he will advance to the 2nd round.
R. Chastain – 95.53%
Current Position: 8
Points Earned: 45
P75 Points Remaining: 69
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 52
P50 Points Remaining: 57
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 40
P25 Points Remaining: 44
P25 Delta To Cut Line: 27
Chastain’s impressive performance at Darlington puts him into a similar position to Reddick, comfortably above the cutline and with an opportunity to earn extra playoff points to build a cushion in future rounds. With a paucity of strong results at Gateway and Bristol, exploiting strategy to win a few stages is his best hope to prepare for future rounds.
J. Logano – 72.66%
Current Position: 13
Points Earned: 24
P75 Points Remaining: 65
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 18
P50 Points Remaining: 53
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 6
P25 Points Remaining: 41
P25 Delta To Cut Line: -6
Joey’s underperformance at Darlington reduces his odds of advancing. A single DNF or 30+ finish would likely put him below the cutline. He’ll need to moderately beat expectations over the next two races to advance. He may be on the cutline bubble come the end of Bristol.
A. Cindric – 51.59%
Current Position: 9
Points Earned: 36
P75 Points Remaining: 43
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 17
P50 Points Remaining: 31
P50 Delta To Cut Line: 5
P25 Points Remaining: 20
P25 Delta To Cut Line: -6
Cindric’s overperformance at Darlington (aided by Bowman’s underperformance) to move just over the line at 51% to advance. He’ll need to coninute to beat expectattions at Gateway and Bristol, and hope those below him don’t gain momentum, to advance into the 2nd round. He will be in the mix of the cutline battle come Bristol.
A. Bowman – 44.17%
Current Position: 15
Points Earned: 8
P75 Points Remaining: 68
P75 Delta To Cut Line: 5
P50 Points Remaining: 56
P50 Delta To Cut Line: -7
P25 Points Remaining: 43
P25 Delta To Cut Line: -20
After a miserable performance at Darlington, Alex will need to find another gear to make it through to the second round. He’ll need top 10 finishes and stage points, in each race, or get a win to advance to the 2nd round. Expect him to be just below the cutline as the laps wind down at Bristol.
A. Dillon – 21.53%
Current Position: 14
Points Earned: 19
P75 Points Remaining: 46
P75 Delta To Cut Line: -6
P50 Points Remaining: 33
P50 Delta To Cut Line: -19
P25 Points Remaining: 22
P25 Delta To Cut Line: -30
Austin performed within his expected range at Darlington, but has little hopes of advancing without career performances at Gateway and Bristol, and a little bit of luck.
J. Berry – 19.27%
Current Position: 16
Points Earned: 8
P75 Points Remaining: 56
P75 Delta To Cut Line: -7
P50 Points Remaining: 44
P50 Delta To Cut Line: -19
P25 Points Remaining: 31
P25 Delta To Cut Line: -32
Berry’s first lap crash ended his advancement hopes before the flagman put away the green flag. He’ll need a lot of luck and career best performances at Gaateway and Bristol to advance. Will his earning of the fastest lap point make the difference? It’s unlikely, but every point counts.
S. Van Gisbergen – 5.71%
Current Position: 12
Points Earned: 27
P75 Points Remaining: 20
P75 Delta To Cut Line: -15
P50 Points Remaining: 12
P50 Delta To Cut Line: -23
P25 Points Remaining: 7
P25 Delta To Cut Line: -28
The underdog story of the playoffs have come to an end, while Shane’s playoff points keep him above the cutline for now – his path to the 2nd round is incredibly thin; he’d need the overlap of his needed results and expected results has almost no overlap. Expect him to stay at the bottom of the playoff standings for the remainder of the of the round.
- The races have not been re-simulated to take into account performance at Darlington, though there were a few minor bug-fixes to the playoff simulation calculations. ↩︎
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