So who is going to win what may be the final year of this version of the playoff format?
I simulated every race in the playoffs 20,000 times, for the entire field. The simulation is based on recent results and lap-by-lap performance from races at similar tracks in the NextGen era. I then build a performance model1 based on these results. With those inputs, it runs thousands of Monte Carlo races” ranking drivers by sampled performance to produce finishes and stage results and converts those into regular and playoff points. I then take all of these simulations and chain each of them into a playoff “run”, calculating who advanced, and resetting and applying earned playoff points. From this simulation, I can get the probabilities that each driver advances through a round, and their probability of winning the championship.
So, without further ado, this is how the playoffs are most likely to unfold.
The simulation predicts that Bell will be the champion, his strong historical performances on short-tracks help him hav strong points days at Bristol and Martinsville, and make him most likely to lead the playoff field at Phoenix. The remainder of the championship four are “chalky” as Larson, Byron, and Hamlin’s haul of playoff points and consistent finishes are enough to advance to Phoenix. But we’ve got more details to break down; let’s look at the probabilities that drivers advance to the next round.
Here, some more interesting results begin to appear; While Bell has the highest likelyhood of being crowned the champion, both he and Blaney are basically a coin-flip to advance out of the 3rd round, we also see that Blaney is the 2nd most likely to win the championship, if he can advance out of Round 3. Might we see a fourth Penske championship in a row? That all depends on who makes it out of Round 3. Now let’s dive into each specific driver’s chances, in order of likelyhood to win the championship.
Christopher Bell
Round Probabilities: 99.86%, 90.30%, 51.02%, 32.16%
C. Bell is pretty much a lock to make it out of the first round due to his consitency at all tracks, and high likelyhood of winning at Bristol, is highly likely to sail through the second round with more consistent performances. He will hit his first challanges in the 3rd round, principally due to a predicted poor finish at Taladega; if he can escape cleanly, or win at Martinsville, he’s sure to be in the final four, where he has the highest probability of all drivers of winning the race, and earning his first championship.
Ryan Blaney
Round Probabilities: 98.77%, 78.66%, 49.36%, 23.34%
Again, Blaney is almost certain to make it out of the first round, and is likely to make it out of the second with consistent if not outstanding performance pulling him along. His challange begins in the 3rd round, can he earn enough points at Vegas to risk another Super Speedway win at Talladega? Or will he have to fall back on his 13% chance of winning at Martinsville to make it through the round? If he’s still in the hunt come Phoenix, he’s sure to be a threat to begin alternating championships with Logano.
Kyle Larson
Round Probabilities: 99.81%, 85.01%, 68.15%, 14.61%
Larson’s haul of 32 playoff points are likely to help him sail through the first round, and should help him push through a set of relatively weak tracks for himself. His strong performance at Vegas and Martinsville, and recent success on super-speedways means he is the most likely driver to make it through the 3rd round, though his and Hendrick’s recent underperformance at Phoenix mean he is only 3rd most likely to take home the trophy. Will a late caution and strong performance from his pit crew give him the track position he needs?
William Byron
Round Probabilities: 99.70%, 93.11%, 65.91%, 10.27%
With his haul of 32 playoff points, Byron is likely to sail through the first and second rounds, with those points supporting him at his weakest track, Bristol. As long as he survives the chaos at Talladega unscathed, he should advance through the third round, even without help from his Chevy teammates. if he makes it to Phoenix, he’ll have to overperform his historical results, or hope he doesn’t face Bell or Blaney to help his odds at winning it all.
Denny Hamlin
Round Probabilities: 99.90%, 86.84%, 56.78%, 9.72%
As the 2 time Daytona Winner Parker Kligerman says, every year is Denny’s year until it’s not. The Roval could be when his year comes to an end, but, with a new approach to road course racing and with the 3rd most playoff points, he may just make it to the 3rd Round. If he does, he’ll need to return to his pre NextGen SuperSpeedway performance at Talladega, or score a win at Martinsville to get through to Phoenix. Will a repeat of his 2nd place result in the spring be enough to get him his first championship? The prospect of bringing the trophy to court every day in December would certainly motivate me.
Chase Elliott
Round Probabilities: 98.77%, 73.34%, 27.89%, 3.70%
Can the 9 team turn around their performance and return to their mid-season consistent top 10 form? If so, Chase should have an easy path to the 3rd Round. Expect Chase to be right on the cutline as the 3rd round ends. Will a clutch win at Martinsville help balance out his historical underperformance at Vegas and Talladega? Or will his failure to make the Championship 4 again lead to the Chasesexuals’ call to replace Alan Gustafson to only grow louder?
Joey Logano
Round Probabilities: 79.64%, 50.08%, 18.56%, 0.84%
Need any more be said than it’s an odd-numbered year? Or will the 22 pull off another playoff hot-streak, win another championship, and in doing so put the final nail in the coffin of the current playoff format?
R. Chastain
Playoff Points: 8
Round Probabilities: 79.56%, 35.97%, 12.42%, 1.93%
Ross has an uphill battle to Phoenix, with no stand-out tracks to earn him a win, and a lack of playoff points, the 1 team will have to find another gear to make it to Phoenix, and this time, he won’t have the Marttinsville T3/4 wall to help him put that speed to use. If he makes it to Phoenix count him to be a threat, he is the only driver in the last 3 years to beat a Penske car at the Fall race.
Bubba Wallace
Round Probabilities: 89.60%, 40.30%, 15.88%, 0.84%
2025 is the first time Bubba’s won his way into the playoffs. Can a few weeks without the pressure of the cut-line be the break he needs to build up the momentum for a deep playoff run? If he can make it through the first rounds, can he win again at the Kansas Fall race? If his pit crew can avoid a costly penalty like in the spring, he should be on for another top finish, that may just be enough to lock him into the 3rd Round.
Tyler Reddick
Round Probabilities: 88.90%, 72.22%, 10.20%, 0.51%
Tyler’s championship hopes are a bit of a quagmire, he’s got a strong chance of making it through the first and second rounds, but the tracks in Round 3 stack the odds against him. His poor performance on short-tracks, and the chance at super-speedways mean he’d almost have to win at Vegas to ensure he’s advancing to Phoenix. If he does make it to Phoenix, his up-and-down results do not inspre confidence.
Alex Bowman
Round Probabilities: 79.06%, 34.85%, 7.72%, 0.22%
Can the 48 team continue their trend of strong points days and avoid a DQ to make another deep playoff run? Alex will need to string together a number of top 10 finishes to make up for his lack of playoff points. If he can make it out of Darlington, Gateway, and Loudon, his weakest three tracks, with strong points days, he may be able to find the wins that have eluded him at Bristol and Kansas, or repeat his success at Vegas or Martinsville to earn him a spot in Phoenix. He’ll need some luck at his home track to seal his first championship and evade the curse of the purported 4th Hendrick car.
Chase Briscoe
Round Probabilities: 71.90%, 13.11%, 5.12%, 0.20%
The model underrepresents Briscoe’s chances, as it doesn’t have enough history of his performance at JGR to adequately account for his recent rise in form. If there’s one driver poised to “upset” the model’s predictions it’s Chase. If he can maintain his current form, he could easily make a deep playoff run.
Josh Berry
Round Probabilities: 43.58%, 11.20%, 3.66%, 0.16%
Another driver with few results at his most recent team, limits the model’s ability to accurately predict his chances. Will the 21 team be able to turn around from their mid-season slump? If so, Josh will need to put on career performances through the first and second rounds to protect him from a probable underwhelming result at the Roval.
Austin Cindric
Round Probabilities: 32.66%, 15.80%, 3.14%, 0.01%
Cindric’s best chance of advancing run through repeating his ’24 win at Gateway, and finally living up to his road course roots and scoring a win at the Roval. He does not share a strong history at Phoenix like his Penske teammates, but that could be due to him never making it to the Championship round.
Austin Dillon
Round Probabilities: 24.74%, 7.90%, 2.05%, 0.2%
A second win in a row at Richmond finally locks Austin into the playoffs. With an otherwise lackluster season, he’d need to have both career performances and some luck to make it out of the first round, after which his chances don’t get much better. As the only true playoff spoiler, it’s unlikely we’ll see much more than a first round exit form Austin Dillon.
Shane van Gisbergen
Playoff Points: 22
Round Probabilities: 16.06%, 11.24%, 2.14%, 0%
As we’ve previously covered2 SVG’s 22 playoff points are likely not enough to carry him through the first round though his recent upturn in performance on ovals doesn’t fully track through the model. If he’s still in it at the Roval, he’ll certainly have to win to advance to the 3rd round. While unlikely, a deep playoff run should earn him more respect as it will take consistent top 20 performance on ovals. As the only driver with a 0.00% chance of winning the championship, don’t expect to see a Kiwi hoisting the trophy in Phoenix
- The performance model accounts for driver form, track effects, stage performance, and recency, giving more weight to a driver’s and team’s recent runs, especially at the same track, and adds a boost when both the past race and the current event are in the playoffs, to account for drivers who are clutch in the playoffs. ↩︎
- This post leverages a newer, more refined model, and thus the percentages do not align. ↩︎
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