Playoff Probabilities for the Round of 12

After an exciting tire-management race race at Bristol, we now have our Round of 12 Drivers; let’s see how their probabilities of reaching the 3rd Round and beyond stack up.

Yet again, we see how much of an impact playoff points have in paving the way through the round. Hamlin, Byron, Larson, Bell and Blaney each have more than 20 playoff points, providing them with a big cushion against poor results, and giving them a greater than 75% chance of advancing. The remaining drivers have little cushion, and will have to be on it to hope to advance to the 3rd Round. Cindric is the only driver with a below 50% chance of advancing and will need to have a number of strong performances, and hope at least one other driver has a few poor results, to be able to advance.

Let’s breakdown each drivers path through the rest of the playoffs by looking at their probability of advancing based on their finishing positions throughout the remaining races.

D. Hamlin

Playoff Points: 34

With Denny’s 34 playoff points, he can afford to have a bad finish or two throughout the round. With his historical underperformance on road courses, banking some points at Loudon and Kansas will protect him from a poor race at the Roval. Looking forward to the 4th round, Denny will need to protect himself from his historical underperformance on super speedways in the next-gen era; with strong historical performance at Vegas and Martinsville, he has a reasonable chance of making it to Phoenix.

C. Bell

Playoff Points: 28

Bell’s win at Bristol top off his playoff point buffer and provide him with a similar path to the 3rd round as his teammate Hamlin: the buffer protects him from all but the worst results. His historical performance on road courses futher helps, as he doesn’t have to load up on points early to protect from an expected bad result. Bell will want to build more playoff points through the 2nd round and aim for a win in the third round to protect himself from another dissapointing night at Martinsville.

K. Larson

Playoff Points: 32

Larson’s playoff points have so far protected him through a dip in recent form. If it were ever a time to find the speed again, it’s now – while he’s likely safe through the 2nd round, building up additional playoff pooints will always be helpful; and setting himself up for a strong third round by improving his qualifying Metric will ensure he can make it through the third round and to Phoenix once again.

W. Byron

Playoff Points: 32

R. Blaney

Playoff Points: 26

Blaney’s 26 playoff points protect him from many bad performances – but he must avoid finishing outside of the top 30. His third round will be much harder. With an expectation of strong performances, he’ll need to put on strong showings throughout the third round – as he is expected to do, to advance to Phoenix again.

T. Reddick

Playoff Points: 6

Reddick’s dearth of playoff points means he’ll have to show up in the 2nd round to advance. A string of top 10s will likely guarentee his advancement; and results outside of the top 20 will spell doom for his opportunity to advance to the 3rd round. Similarly; he’ll have to be on it in the 3rd round, finishing in the top 5 consistently to advance to the championship.

C. Elliott

Playoff Points: 13

The 9 team will have to return to their mid-season form of consistent results to be able to advance into the 3rd round. a string of top 15s will leave him in a comfortable position. If Chase can finally get comfortable with the NextGen on road courses, a win at the Roval could rack up some playoff points that he’ll need heading into the 3rd round. To advance he’ll need to consistently finish in the top 5 – a risky proposition with Talladega in the mix.

C. Briscoe

Playoff Points: 17

Briscoe’s continued strong performance should help him earn the top 15s he’ll need to be certain to advance. If he advances, he’ll need to be on top form, earning 10s throughout the final round to have his first chance at the trophy in Phoenix.

B. Wallace

Playoff Points: 10

Can Bubba ride a strong performance in the first round through to his first appearance in the 3rd round? He’ll need to in order to have a shot. With his recent uptick in performance on Road Courses, he should feel confident in pushing for strong performances at Loudon and Kansas. His 3rd round will be tough, needing to perform well, and likely have a bit of luck run his way, in order to advance to Phoenix.

J. Logano

Playoff Points: 7

Can Joey pull off another win to advance out of the round of 12? That’s his best chance to be secure in his advancement. with only 7 he sits below the cutline to start, and will have to battle his way out of a hole in order to advance. It’s an odd-numbered year, but also looks to be the last year of this championship format – will we say goodbye to the final version of the one-race championship format with another year of Logano hositing the trophy at Phoenix? His best chance to do so is to go on another winning streak.

R. Chastain

Playoff Points: 7

Chastain’s 7 playoff points means he too starts below the cutline. He’ll need to string together a series of top 10s to advance to the 3rd round. Can some coaching from SvG improve his chances at the Roval? His third round will be similarly tough; without a hail-melon to save him at Martinsville he’ll need a number of top 5s to have another shot at the championship in Phoenix.

A. Cindric

Playoff Points: 8

Can the Cindric cindarella story continue? He’ll need a series of strong performances through the 2nd round to have a chance in the third round. His best hope in the third round is translating his historical performance at Daytona to Talladega and winning his way to Phoenix. Otherwise, he’s unlikely to advance.