Galaxie

Author: Braden

  • Vegas Shakes up the Playoff Field

    Vegas Shakes up the Playoff Field

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    by

    Braden

    The final 30 laps at Vegas, shook up the playoff field, and has started to clarify the Championship 4.Hamlin’s win locks him into Phoenix, and boosts his chances of winning the championship to 42%. Other drivers odds will improve as they lock in – but for now Hamlin is the odds-on favorite. Larson is now…

  • Onto the 3rd Round – Down to the Wire

    Onto the 3rd Round – Down to the Wire

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    by

    Braden

    After an exciting finish that resulted in no changes to advancement at the Roval, we can now look ahead to the penultimate round of the playoffs. The top of the field is close – Blaney, Larson, and Hamlin are all currently likely to advance though a single bad finish or wins from those outside of…

  • Chaos at Kansas clarifies the Round 3 Picture

    Chaos at Kansas clarifies the Round 3 Picture

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    by

    Braden

    After an eventful overtime at Kansas has clarified the bubble; and has clarified who is likely to advance into the 3rd Round. Blaney, Elliott, Larson, Hamlin, Bell and Byron are all essentially locked in – no other drivers can both score enough points and win to put them below the cutline come the end of…

  • Playoff Results after Loudon: The Bubble Forms

    Playoff Results after Loudon: The Bubble Forms

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    by

    Braden

    After an unexpectedly strong showing from Penske at Loudon, and underwhelming performances from Toyota, the cutline bubble has begun to form more clearly. Blaney, Byron, and Larson all now have a greater than 90% chance of advancing; while Hamlin and Bell both have more than an 80% chance of advancing. Looking forward, Denny is now…

  • Playoff Probabilities for the Round of 12

    Playoff Probabilities for the Round of 12

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    by

    Braden

    After an exciting tire-management race race at Bristol, we now have our Round of 12 Drivers; let’s see how their probabilities of reaching the 3rd Round and beyond stack up. Yet again, we see how much of an impact playoff points have in paving the way through the round. Hamlin, Byron, Larson, Bell and Blaney…

  • Playoff Probabilities Before Bristol. Whose Going To Make the Cut?

    Playoff Probabilities Before Bristol. Whose Going To Make the Cut?

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    by

    Braden

    After another eventful race for the playoff field, it’s time to once again run the simulation and see which drivers are likely to make it through Bristol, and whose seasons are likely to end there. After being unsatisfied with some of the models’ predictive power, I’ve tweaked it to better account for current team performance,…

  • Updated Playoff Sim Results After Darlington

    Updated Playoff Sim Results After Darlington

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    by

    Braden

    Darlington was an eventful race for the playoff field, drasticly swininging the odds of success for many playoff drivers. I’ve re-run the playoff model, substituting the results from Darlington in place of the simulations of that race. Briscoe’s odds of advancing through the 2nd Round are up 30% to 100%, as he’s locked in via…

  • After Simulating the Playoffs 20,000 Times, Who is Most Likely to be Champion?

    After Simulating the Playoffs 20,000 Times, Who is Most Likely to be Champion?

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    by

    Braden

    I simulated every race in the playoffs 20,000 times, for the entire field. The simulation is based on recent results and lap-by-lap performance from races at similar tracks in the NextGen era. I then build a performance model based on these results.

  • Is SvG Making the 2nd Round?

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    by

    Braden

    There’s a chance. Let me explain why. I ran 50,000 simulations of the first round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs using Shane van Gisbergen’s points finishes this year on similar tracks. The result? a 28% chance he makes it through to the Round of 12.