After an unexpectedly strong showing from Penske at Loudon, and underwhelming performances from Toyota, the cutline bubble has begun to form more clearly. Blaney, Byron, and Larson all now have a greater than 90% chance of advancing; while Hamlin and Bell both have more than an 80% chance of advancing. Looking forward, Denny is now the first to have more than a 20% chance of winning the championship.
Logano’s strong performance has boosted his prospects of advancing by 20%, while 23XI’s underperformance has dropped Reddick and Bubba’s prospects by 20%. While Cindric performed as expected, his teammate’s overperformance has dropped his prospects by 15%.
Chastain’s modest overperformance has only slightly decreased his odds by 6%, while the Chase’s modest overperformances have allowed them to hold on for another week. Let’s see how each of the drivers with <85% chance of advancing need to finish at Kansas to protect themselves from the ‘wildcard’ of the Roval.
Hamlin is currently sitting well above the cutline, but, due to his historic struggles on road courses, he would do well to continue to pad his buffer to the cutline. A finish inside the top 10 would cement his advancement, while a finish in the top 20 would further increase his chances. Any result worse than that will put him at a significant risk of being eliminated at the Roval
Logano is similarly well positioned, a finish in the top 15 will nearly guarentee his advancement; while any finish outside the top 20 will put him at risk of elimination at the Roval.
Elliott can improve his chances of advancing with any finish inside the top 15, while any finish outside the top 30 will put him at serious risk of being eliminated.
Briscoe can improve his chances of advancing with any finish inside the top 20, and cement his advancement with any finish inside the top 10. a finish outside the top 25 will make it nearly certain that his playoff run is over.
Chastain has some buffer, he can increase his chances of advancing with a finish inside the top 15, but would be best served with a top 10 finish.
Reddick will need a top 5 finish to have a strong chance of advancing at the Roval, but will boost his chances with any finish inside the top 10. A finish outside of the top 20 would almost certainly mean his playoffs are over.
If Cindric finishes in the top 10, he’ll significantly increase his chances of advancing; while a finish outside of the top 20 will mean the end of his playoff run.
Wallace must finish in the top 10 to have any chance of advancing, and to have a realistic chance of advancing he must finish in the top 5. Not only would that increase his points, but would also mean that the other bubble drivers earn less points than him – increasing the probability that he is above the cut line going into the Roval.
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