Month: September 2025
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Chaos at Kansas clarifies the Round 3 Picture
After an eventful overtime at Kansas has clarified the bubble has clarified who is likely to advance into the 3rd Round. Blaney, Elliott, Larson, Hamlin, Bell, and Byron are all essentially locked in – no other drivers can both score enough points and win to put them below the cutline come the end of the…
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Playoff Results after Loudon: The Bubble Forms
After an unexpectedly strong showing from Penske at Loudon and underwhelming performances from Toyota, the cutline bubble has begun to form more clearly. Blaney, Byron, and Larson all now have a greater than 90% chance of advancing, while Hamlin and Bell both have more than an 80% chance of advancing. Looking forward, Denny is now…
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Playoff Probabilities for the Round of 12
After an exciting tire-management race race at Bristol, we now have our Round of 12 Drivers; let’s see how their probabilities of reaching the 3rd Round and beyond stack up. Yet again, we see how much of an impact playoff points have in paving the way through the round. Hamlin, Byron, Larson, Bell and Blaney…
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Playoff Probabilities Before Bristol. Whose Going To Make the Cut?
After another eventful race for the playoff field, it’s time to once again run the simulation and see which drivers are likely to make it through Bristol, and whose seasons are likely to end there. After being unsatisfied with some of the models’ predictive power, I’ve tweaked it to better account for current team performance,…
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Updated Playoff Sim Results After Darlington
Darlington was an eventful race for the playoff field, drasticly swininging the odds of success for many playoff drivers. I’ve re-run the playoff model, substituting the results from Darlington in place of the simulations of that race. Briscoe’s odds of advancing through the 2nd Round are up 30% to 100%, as he’s locked in via…