Month: August 2025
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After Simulating the Playoffs 20,000 Times, Who is Most Likely to be Champion?
I simulated every race in the playoffs 20,000 times, for the entire field. The simulation is based on recent results and lap-by-lap performance from races at similar tracks in the NextGen era. I then build a performance model based on these results.
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Is SvG Making the 2nd Round?
There’s a chance. Let me explain why. I ran 50,000 simulations of the first round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs using Shane van Gisbergen’s points finishes this year on similar tracks. The result? a 28% chance he makes it through to the Round of 12.