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How the Chase is Likely to Unfold
In the announcement and follow-on coverage of the return to the Chase Format, NASCAR discussed its analysis of the format and ran simulations to better understand it. While they’ve provided some high-level results from this work, I wanted to dive deeper, so I’ve run the same race simulations that powered last season’s Playoff simulations through
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Introducing gRating: iRacing’s iRating for NASCAR
With the release of its NASCAR 25 video game early last year, NASCAR and the game’s developer, iRacing, unveiled a new driver rating system. Predictably, the ratings sparked spirited debate among fans and drivers. Unexplained amid this discussion was why iRacing didn’t apply its tried-and-true iRating system to rate NASCAR drivers in the game. With
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Good Race Correlations
I was sitting in #NASCOURT today, listening to John Probst, EVP and Chief Racing Development Officer’s testimony, where he said that in connection with their initial planning for the NextGen car, NASCAR contracted with Lixar, a Canadian technology advisory business, to understand what makes a good race. They utilized fan sentiment, timing, and scoring data
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Rewinding the Playoffs, Reviewing the Model
The NASCAR season is over. Let’s review how the race and playoff simulation models performed, and would have performed over the course of the playoffs. Over the course of the playoffs, I’ve improved both the race and playoff simulations, and have not updated previous articles – so the results presented below will not align with
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And then there were Four – Breaking down Phoenix
In preparation for the final race, I’ve continued to refine the Race Simulation model, simplifying certain aspects and adding additional parameters to account for drivers’ performance compared to their teammates. This has had the effect of more accurately modeling drivers on new teams (such as Briscoe) or those with less historical data. As we look
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Overtime Changes Everything, Winning is the only way in
The last two laps significantly changed the playoff picture and completely changed the dynamic of Martinsville. Briscoe, of course, locked himself in, while Larson and Bell are both now almost certain to advance. Blaney, Elliott, Logano, and Byron are all now in must-win situations. Now that the championship four is likely set, we can take
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Vegas Shakes up the Playoff Field
The final 30 laps at Vegas shook up the playoff field, and have started to clarify the Championship 4. Hamlin’s win locks him into Phoenix and boosts his chances of winning the championship to 42%. Other drivers ‘ odds will improve as they lock in – but for now, Hamlin is the odds-on favorite. Larson
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Onto the 3rd Round – Down to the Wire
After an exciting finish that resulted in no changes to advancement at the Roval, we can now look ahead to the penultimate round of the playoffs. The top of the field is close – Blaney, Larson, and Hamlin are all currently likely to advance, though a single bad finish or wins from those outside of
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Chaos at Kansas clarifies the Round 3 Picture
After an eventful overtime at Kansas has clarified the bubble has clarified who is likely to advance into the 3rd Round. Blaney, Elliott, Larson, Hamlin, Bell, and Byron are all essentially locked in – no other drivers can both score enough points and win to put them below the cutline come the end of the
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Playoff Results after Loudon: The Bubble Forms
After an unexpectedly strong showing from Penske at Loudon and underwhelming performances from Toyota, the cutline bubble has begun to form more clearly. Blaney, Byron, and Larson all now have a greater than 90% chance of advancing, while Hamlin and Bell both have more than an 80% chance of advancing. Looking forward, Denny is now
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Playoff Probabilities for the Round of 12
After an exciting tire-management race race at Bristol, we now have our Round of 12 Drivers; let’s see how their probabilities of reaching the 3rd Round and beyond stack up. Yet again, we see how much of an impact playoff points have in paving the way through the round. Hamlin, Byron, Larson, Bell and Blaney
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Playoff Probabilities Before Bristol. Whose Going To Make the Cut?
After another eventful race for the playoff field, it’s time to once again run the simulation and see which drivers are likely to make it through Bristol, and whose seasons are likely to end there. After being unsatisfied with some of the models’ predictive power, I’ve tweaked it to better account for current team performance,
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Updated Playoff Sim Results After Darlington
Darlington was an eventful race for the playoff field, drasticly swininging the odds of success for many playoff drivers. I’ve re-run the playoff model, substituting the results from Darlington in place of the simulations of that race. Briscoe’s odds of advancing through the 2nd Round are up 30% to 100%, as he’s locked in via
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After Simulating the Playoffs 20,000 Times, Who is Most Likely to be Champion?
I simulated every race in the playoffs 20,000 times, for the entire field. The simulation is based on recent results and lap-by-lap performance from races at similar tracks in the NextGen era. I then build a performance model based on these results.
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Is SvG Making the 2nd Round?
There’s a chance. Let me explain why. I ran 50,000 simulations of the first round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs using Shane van Gisbergen’s points finishes this year on similar tracks. The result? a 28% chance he makes it through to the Round of 12.
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