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After an exciting tire-management race race at Bristol, we now have our Round of 12 Drivers; let’s see how their probabilities of reaching the 3rd Round and beyond stack up. Yet again, we see how much of an impact playoff points have in paving the way through the round. Hamlin,… Read more: Playoff Probabilities for the Round of 12

After another eventful race for the playoff field, it’s time to once again run the simulation and see which drivers are likely to make it through Bristol, and whose seasons are likely to end there. After being unsatisfied with some of the models’ predictive power, I’ve tweaked it to better… Read more: Playoff Probabilities Before Bristol. Whose Going To Make the Cut?

Darlington was an eventful race for the playoff field, drasticly swininging the odds of success for many playoff drivers. I’ve re-run the playoff model, substituting the results from Darlington in place of the simulations of that race. Briscoe’s odds of advancing through the 2nd Round are up 30% to 100%,… Read more: Updated Playoff Sim Results After Darlington

I simulated every race in the playoffs 20,000 times, for the entire field. The simulation is based on recent results and lap-by-lap performance from races at similar tracks in the NextGen era. I then build a performance model based on these results.

There’s a chance. Let me explain why. I ran 50,000 simulations of the first round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs using Shane van Gisbergen’s points finishes this year on similar tracks. The result? a 28% chance he makes it through to the Round of 12.