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The final 30 laps at Vegas, shook up the playoff field, and has started to clarify the Championship 4.Hamlin’s win locks him into Phoenix, and boosts his chances of winning the championship to 42%. Other drivers odds will improve as they lock in – but for now Hamlin is the… Read more: Vegas Shakes up the Playoff Field

After an exciting finish that resulted in no changes to advancement at the Roval, we can now look ahead to the penultimate round of the playoffs. The top of the field is close – Blaney, Larson, and Hamlin are all currently likely to advance though a single bad finish or… Read more: Onto the 3rd Round – Down to the Wire

After an eventful overtime at Kansas has clarified the bubble; and has clarified who is likely to advance into the 3rd Round. Blaney, Elliott, Larson, Hamlin, Bell and Byron are all essentially locked in – no other drivers can both score enough points and win to put them below the… Read more: Chaos at Kansas clarifies the Round 3 Picture

After an unexpectedly strong showing from Penske at Loudon, and underwhelming performances from Toyota, the cutline bubble has begun to form more clearly. Blaney, Byron, and Larson all now have a greater than 90% chance of advancing; while Hamlin and Bell both have more than an 80% chance of advancing.… Read more: Playoff Results after Loudon: The Bubble Forms

After an exciting tire-management race race at Bristol, we now have our Round of 12 Drivers; let’s see how their probabilities of reaching the 3rd Round and beyond stack up. Yet again, we see how much of an impact playoff points have in paving the way through the round. Hamlin,… Read more: Playoff Probabilities for the Round of 12